non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . 4% this time last yr. this conversation. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. 5% plus 1% productivity. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. No wonder RBA is slowing down. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney (+1. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. . First time I've properly suited up in a long while. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%; 5 capital cities have fallen 3. Logically can't happen. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. Even with yields down. . “The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead of risky assets ‘living in a parallel universe’ - A recession may be precisely the jolt lackadaisical Millennials require to lift their game. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Conversation. Visit cjoye's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. Well done. Sign upIn this conversation. 3. 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. Retweets. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. ALT. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. christopher joye. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Immigration is still big in Aus. @cjoye. 9. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. “@cjoye Modi had highest voters support among all democratic countries! As Paul Keating repeatedly pointed out, Albo is just a sucker!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. 4% pa return. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. Quote Tweet. estimates will revise down a bit. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 28. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. Log in. Log in. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. FML 🫠”“@cjoye Too corrupt and too much poverty. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. “Super strong US employment data will embolden Fed to push to 5. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983 - MacroBusiness. Replying to. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Like. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. christopher joye. Retweets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersThe data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. “@cjoye Watched The Big Short again last night - I fear the can kicking is going to end soon and we will have our very own subprime moment. May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. Australia experiences worst house price falls in 42 years, with more to come. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. christopher joye @cjoye. Given the number of markets that have had this set up and tanked. Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. 6%mom) prices led the increase. Embarrassingly wrong. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. . This is 70s. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. CoreLogic: Australian home values officially record the largest decline on record would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. Sign upSee new Tweets. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. ConversationSee new Tweets. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. Our globally unique War Lab put 74% probability on military conflict between China/Taiwan and a 45% chance of US-China conflict erupting over next decade based on data up to 2020. 0%), Melbourne (-7. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. Melb also up: 67. @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. christopher joye on Twitter. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. macrobusiness. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. au. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. So how does this effect them? I would have thought ppl who regularly buy/sell homes or were looking to cash out for retirement would be more affected?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. 4. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. 2m are customer assets. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. they all roll over the same. @cjoye yep, thats the point. Huobi announced $18. “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. This is deflationary. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. Sydney (+1. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. Sign up Day of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%, bringing total decline to 6. @Dante57112893. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. Sign upLog in. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. 1KWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. 6pc. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. Interesting. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. By Huobi announced $18. Some areas down -25. A controversial article by Christopher Joye, an outspoken investment portfolio manager and columnist for the Australian Financial Review, has. We await policy details to review our outlook". 1 million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. 3. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It. “Real interest rate hammer has yet to fall would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. “@cjoye After yeeeaars of saving for a deposit and finally getting into the market [at peak Jan 22] we now have to deal with this. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. The bears are gonna start running for the hills when they see wolverine chasing em”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We have unscrambled the letters cjoye (cejoy) to make a list of all the word combinations found in the popular word scramble. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22 Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness In this conversation. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 85% to 4. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . 5% pa, or 2. afr. “@cjoye Step forward for transparency, but still doesn’t stop more/different things being said in other forums (or by other RBA officials). “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. . Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. ”Log in. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users The data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. We reap what we sow. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. ALT. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. I suspect the increased earnings (and potentially profit) of the big players in ASX 200 might offset increases in discount rates. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. 6%mom) prices led the increase. Log in. Jerome Nugent-Smith. It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. The Australian Financial. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. ConversationIn this conversation. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. May 2. ly/3pmX9Dk. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upDay of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. @cjoye. Immigrants need groceries, cars, bank accounts, etc”“Westpac data shows that exactly 50% of all borrowers are less than one month ahead on their mortgage repayments, or behind. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Quote Tweet. @cjoye · Aug 5. In this conversation. I believe this includes offset accounts. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. @cjoye. . 2 days ago. Show more". Rebounding asset prices would keep inflation - and rates - higher for longer. See new TweetsNothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed everMassive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. “Morning!” We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. Fun interview with nabtrade on bond markets. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. In this conversation. Sign up“@haluksenlik @cjoye There is obviously significantly more risk and fraud in crypto than in the stock market, but Matt Damon promoted a centralized brokerage that curates assets and thus doesn't expose you to the scams where possible. com. Replying to . Fantastic lunch event with Chris Joye @cjoye and Coolibah Capital today in Perth. au. Forecast looks good. . ”Log in. . When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. 85% to 4. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. Your chart is pretty much 12 months already. . @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye posits #stock are 20% overvalued given the 5% discount rate -> seeing this in earnings #mastercard and #carnival both accelerating earnings, but not rewarded post. Prepare for equities and property pain. @cjoye. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. “@cjoye Sir. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. You've reached your limit when it comes to tweeting about bitcoin being under $20k. Log in. In this conversation. There was only one way to go. Job cuts over 18mo. Tech party is over as Canva and Atlassian get tough, and perks dry up“Does any seriously believe house prices will not fall after the RBA cutting the cash rate from 1. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet. It's very unstable at the street level. . 5%. ↑ Joye, Christopher. 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested [email protected]! From US2yr notes to the Russell2000 and Peleton, Netflix, AfterPay etc etc etc. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. OAKVILLE, ON — September 1, 2022 — Today marks the start of a new chapter for JOY RADIO (CJYE) as it unveils not only a new look, but a new feel to their. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. So presumably brought their first home. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. Log in Another story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. The wage costs for businesses producing products is far too high and can only be addressed by greater productivity, which means fewer workers. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). “@cjoye @PeteWargent Both this and Labor shared equity policy are attempts to shore up supporter bases/buy votes. Aug 16. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. Conversation“@cjoye who would have thought lending money to a government with a printing press that practically can't default would result in potentially the 2nd largest bank collapse in US history 😄”In this conversation. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09 “RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…” christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2021 Olympic Medalist, Joey Lye, shares stories and insight into some of the mental skills and strategies that prepared her [email protected] million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. In this conversation. . Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. Sign up“@JohnQuiggin @cjoye We're here because Reagan & Thatcher's neoliberal agenda of crushing unions by offshoring manufacturing to China (& continued by Clinton & Blair) . Interest rates have soared, but commercial property values have barely moved. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 75% bonds or 5,6% annuity products without losing any skin to the middleman, market would be below 4,000 point instantly! Once BoJ st“Mortgage stress to rise as RBA flags risk of higher rates in. “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. afr. Drone operator Christopher Joye posted. @cjoye. Sign up“@mitch_dol @cjoye @TomInvesting This is the Jan REINZ HPI Index developed with our RBNZ. 7%; Brisb off 1. "It's global cyber war out there". In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Found.